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War Game Aims for Record Sales

ENTERTAINMENT: But will Activision’s game hit lofty targets?

Los Angeles Business Journal Staff

Activision Blizzard Inc. will soon take the wraps off of what’s predicted to be the biggest video game of the year – and maybe even the best-seller of all time.

Preorders for “Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2” have been off the charts, and retailers have scheduled midnight sales.

That’s created a lot of excitement for Santa Monica-based Activision. Analysts are hoping the company’s stock will surge after months of modest trading due to declining sales in the video game industry.

The game, which was created and developed at Encino-based studio Infinity Ward Inc., will be released Nov. 10. The studio, which is owned by Activision, also produced three of the previous hits in the series. Each success has brought elevated expectations, and Infinity Ward Chief Executive Vince Zampella said this one will be tough to beat.

“We actually joke about doing a reset game, something intentionally bad so we can back down and relax a little,” Zampella said. “But we do what we love, and hopefully it keeps getting better.”

Some analysts are projecting the shoot-’em-up title could sell more than 12 million copies by the end of December, bringing in more than $500 million in revenue to Activision and $800 million in gross sales.

That would be more money than some of this year’s hit movies have made. It wouldn’t immediately outpace the biggest box office hits such as “Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince,” which grossed $929 million worldwide, but it would surpass “Angels and Demons,” which grossed $486 million worldwide to date.

“Anybody who calls themselves a gamer, if they buy one game this year, this is the one they’re going to buy,” said Michael Pachter, an analyst with Wedbush Morgan Inc. in downtown Los Angeles. Pachter has an “outperform” rating on Activision’s stock.

Those who follow the video game industry point to a slew of reasons why “Modern Warfare 2” could become one of the best-selling games of all time.

The game, in which players take on the role of a Special Forces soldier battling a terrorist organization in the Middle East, Russia and South America, has contemporary locations that players can relate to. (Most of the previous games in the series were set during World War II.) It’s also the sequel to 2007’s “Call of Duty: Modern Warfare,” another Infinity Ward hit that sold more than 8 million copies, according to Port Washington, N.Y., research firm NPD Group. The game is also landing with perfect timing: right before the crucial holiday season.

“This is a massive production of a notable franchise at the most opportune time to drop into the market,” said Mike Hickey, an analyst with Englewood, Colo.-based Janco Partners Inc. who also rates Activision stock a “buy.”

But will the game live up to the hype? Video game sales have fallen this year as the recession squeezed consumers’ discretionary income. In the United States, video games have grossed $10.4 billion through September of this year, down 13 percent from the same period last year when game sales totaled about $11.9 billion.

The state of the industry has tempered the enthusiasm of at least one analyst. In a note to investors two weeks ago, Piper Jaffray & Co. analyst Anthony Gikas downgraded Activision’s stock from “buy” to “neutral” in a note to investors. While he didn’t specifically name “Modern Warfare 2,” Gikas noted video game sales this year have been a “colossal disappointment.”


  February 8 - 14, 2010
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