Just three months ago, Texas Gov. George W. Bush appeared to have a lock on Los Angeles, with virtually every prominent Republican on his side.
But one week before the March 7 California primary, the ground is shifting. While Bush retains considerable support, many Republicans who had been backing the Texas governor are now giving Sen. John McCain a second look, especially after McCain’s resounding primary victories last week in Michigan and Arizona, which left him leading in the delegate count.
“I’m now leaning toward McCain, though I haven’t fully turned yet,” said L.A. attorney Sheldon Sloan, a politically well-connected Republican who also is president of the Los Angeles Coliseum Commission. “McCain is showing himself as the person who can attract votes from across the political spectrum. I believe that, based upon his performance to date, he stands the better chance of defeating Al Gore in the general election.”
Even record mogul David Geffen, a longtime Democrat and co-chair for the upcoming Democratic National Convention, has kicked in a $1,000 donation to the McCain campaign.
The changing political landscape could have implications far beyond the March 7 primary. If enough prominent L.A. Republicans come out in favor of McCain, it could not only propel him to victory in California but increase his chances of winning the Republican nomination. That in turn could ultimately lead to new set of L.A. Republican power brokers, especially if McCain were to win the White House.
“Since Michigan, my phone has been ringing off the hook,” said Rosalie Zalis, a senior vice president at Global Crossing Ltd. and a volunteer member of McCain’s Southern California fund-raising committee. “(McCain) is now seen as having a possibility of winning.”
The interest has been so high that a luncheon fund-raiser originally scheduled to take place Feb. 25 in a small room at the Park Hyatt Hotel in Century City was moved to the grand ballroom of the nearby Beverly Hilton Hotel. Late last week, Zalis said 600 people were expected to attend and that it could raise up to $250,000 for the insurgent campaign.
Another longtime McCain supporter said he has been deluged with inquiries from Republicans and independent voters.
“When my wife and I go out socially, I wear a McCain button. The last couple of weeks, it’s been like a magnet,” said retired developer Jerry Epstein. “People are coming up to us and saying that McCain is so refreshing. They want to find some way to help him.”
Last week, after the Michigan and Arizona primaries, Epstein said he fielded lots of calls from “prominent Republican business leaders, with names you would undoubtedly recognize.”
Another prominent Republican, commercial real estate consultant and investor Steve Soboroff who is also running for mayor of Los Angeles said he sees momentum building for McCain, although he remains undecided.
“The word was that (McCain) had written off L.A. But now I’m hearing some momentum shift here. If the momentum continues to build for McCain, the establishment folks will conclude that Bush cannot win. If the Don Brens of the world decide this, then you will see very rapid movement,” Soboroff said, referring to the powerful Orange County billionaire developer who came out early for Bush.
Two weeks ago, the state’s highest-ranking Republican, Secretary of State Bill Jones, switched from Bush to McCain. And late last week, San Diego Mayor Susan Golding switched her allegiance to the Arizona senator.
The Bush camp says the Texas governor still has the support of the overwhelming majority of the Republican establishment. And they note that despite California’s “open primary” system, only the ballots of registered Republicans will count toward the all-important selection of state delegates to the Republican convention. McCain has drawn much of his support in other states from Democrats and independents.
“I haven’t seen any hesitation in the Republican ranks,” said Brad Freeman, a partner in the investment firm Freeman Spogli & Co. “If anything, I’m seeing even more enthusiasm among Bush supporters.”
Freeman pointed to a long list of prominent business leaders who remain behind Bush, including Amgen Corp. CEO Gordon Binder; billionaire investor Franklin Otis Booth Jr.; former L.A. Dodgers owner Peter O’Malley; former Warner Bros. Co-Chairman Terry Semel (who hosted a Bush fund-raiser last summer); and Public Storage Co. Chief Executive Wayne Hughes.
One Bush supporter, though, said that many Republicans are beginning to hedge their bets.
“Most of the people I know have supported Bush from the beginning,” said attorney David Fleming, who also is a leader in the Valley secession movement. “But they are impressed with McCain and his ability to connect with people. He’s captured their imagination. I think you will see some more people jumping. Even more may end up giving to both.”
Indeed, McCain has drawn contributions from some people who have made multiple donations. Among then are DreamWorks SKG partner Geffen and Haim Saban of Saban Entertainment.
As in Michigan and New Hampshire, many of those placing calls to the McCain camp are independents, Democrats, or voters with no political affiliation.
“Curiously enough, the people I’m talking to who are supporting or leaning to McCain are all Democrats,” said one well-known Republican in local legal circles.
That was echoed by actress Connie Stevens, a longtime McCain supporter. Stevens said she and several of her friends, all Democrats, have re-registered for the March 7 primary as Republicans for the purpose of supporting McCain.
The real battleground, however, is for moderate Republicans, who are largely concentrated along L.A.’s coastal strip.
“My gut feeling is that McCain’s populism will resonate with coastal, moderate Republicans,” said Republican political consultant Allan Hoffenblum, who himself is a McCain convert. “They are looking at the South Carolina campaign and wondering what George Bush’s relationship is with Pat Robertson and the far-right conservative wing.”
But, Hoffenblum said, Bush sewed up so much Republican support so early that there simply aren’t that many uncommitted Republicans. “This town is so Democratic that there simply aren’t that many Republicans left,” he said.
In fact, Bush drew virtually all the prominent Republicans in L.A. into a fund-raiser last fall at the Century Plaza Hotel. About 3,200 attended, raising $3.2 million. That’s more than 10 times the anticipated take from the McCain fund-raiser at the Beverly Hilton.
It’s that kind of monetary edge that has people like attorney Sloan hesitating to declare fully for McCain.
“He’s got to raise something like $1 million a day for the next three weeks to pull this off,” Sloan said. “There’s no way he can raise that kind of money using traditional fund-raisers, so he’s turning to the Internet. There is still a concern that he will run out of money, which would leave his supporters holding the bag.”
Staff Reporter John Brinsley contributed to this story.
