Election recount undermines network strategies for key ratings Period

What’s a network executive to do when reality is more compelling than fiction? Co-opt it, of course. That may have worked in the past, but even Hollywood producers aren’t quick enough to fictionalize the gripping political events in Florida in time to help them during the November ratings sweeps. As a result, the stubbornly inconclusive presidential race became the latest twist in one the strangest fall television sweeps periods in memory, making it especially difficult for new programs to gain footing while the nation’s attention was focused on who would win the White House. “The election has made everything a mess. Everything is mixed up because of this once-in-a-lifetime occurrence,” said Jerry Isenberg, a professor at the USC School of Film and Television. “It’s hard to get a reliable picture of what’s going on.”

Already disrupted by the Sydney Olympic Games and further delayed by the World Series, the 2000 fall television season got off to a late start and was just gaining steam in anticipation of the four-week November sweeps period when voters went to the polls. The topsy-turvy season has left network schedule makers juggling lineups and crossing their fingers as they try to help their shows find an audience in a climate that has been kind to old favorites but extremely tough on new entries to the prime-time lineup. Midway into the final sweeps period of the year, ABC is leading the pack by a slim margin in overall viewership, while NBC has the advantage when it comes to viewers in the critical 18-49 age group, which most directly affects advertising rates. Still, with viewers fairly evenly split among ABC, NBC , CBS and Fox, winners and losers in the November 2000 ratings race will likely be determined in the next two weeks. To no one’s surprise, the WB and UPN networks continue to lag far behind their competitors in the national rankings. While some say the sweeps periods are not as important as they once were, with networks shifting their programming focus to year-round strategies, the stakes remain undeniably large this season, with hundreds of millions of dollars in advertising revenue hinging on a few percentage points in the ratings. Harold Vogel, a veteran industry analyst and author of “Entertainment Industry Economics,” said the current television season has been one of the most challenging in recent memory for network executives responsible for programming and scheduling decisions. “The networks are having a great deal of difficulty programming week after week because there have been so many disruptions. It’s been very hard this season for any new series to get any traction,” Vogel said. “The ratings race is analogous to the presidential election, the networks are all very close.” Because so many shows debuted later than usual this year, networks are resorting to fewer specials and “big event” programs during this sweeps period. Instead, they’re focusing on building up their core programming. “There’s a lot of catching up going on,” said CBS spokesman Ed Harrison. “What you’re seeing is the networks are trying to give their regular programming a chance.”

NBC continued its dominance in the crucial 18-49 demographic through the first two weeks of the sweeps period and was the only network to garner a larger average viewing audience than it did during the same period in 1999. ABC and Fox have been battling for second place in the adults under-50 group, while CBS trails its main rivals in what has been a difficult season for the network so far. The game is not up though, Harrison asserted. “The jury is still out on a lot of shows,” he said. “The season started and ‘boom,’ we’re in sweeps already. In that sense, it’s been an unusual year.” Like NBC, CBS’s highest-rated program this season is a network staple, “Everybody Loves Raymond.” For ABC, “Millionaire” and “The Practice” led the way, while Fox relied on veteran performers “The Simpsons,” “X-Files” and “Ally McBeal” for its biggest numbers. “These are shows that have been around, and they are getting long in the tooth, but continue to play an important role for the networks,” Vogel said.

Pulling out the stunts

Much has been said this fall about the declining appeal of ABC’s “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire,” but the latest celebrity edition of the popular game show demonstrates how networks look to boost the appeal of their most popular programs to garner the biggest audience during sweeps periods. After losing viewers over the summer, “Millionaire” garnered big ratings with its celebrity editions and helped propel ABC to its overall advantage through the beginning of the sweeps period. After two weeks of sweeps, ABC was drawing more than 13 million viewers on average for each hour of prime-time broadcasting. Second-place NBC was about half a million viewers behind.

The so-called “stunt” programming has become a regular feature of sweeps periods and is by no means the sole provenance of ABC. Fox has pulled a few stunts of its own this season, such as broadcasting two new episodes per week of its quirky sophomore sitcom, “Malcolm in the Middle.” “For Fox, it’s a good strategy because it gives viewers two nights a week of a popular program and it also gives them two nights to introduce new shows with a strong lead-in,” said David Davis, an entertainment industry investment banker with Houlihan, Lockey, Howard & Zuckin.

Mixed results for Ovitz

One of the biggest players in the fall television series has been former Walt Disney Co. president Michael Ovitz, whose Artist Television Group has a stake in four new series airing now and three more coming in January. By financing its own television productions, ATG risked millions of dollars in the current season, an investment that is looking precarious, based on early results. The highly promoted “$treet,” produced by Darren Starr of “Sex in the City” and “Melrose Place” fame, has foundered, drawing just 7 million viewers in its sweeps debut and a little more than 5 million its second episode. At a cost of about $2.3 million per episode to produce, “$treet” has the potential to be one of the biggest flops of the season. Fox officials said that, while they hoped for higher initial ratings, they remain confident in the program’s long-term potential. “We believe the show is very strong creatively. This is one where we are going to keep our chips on the table and let it ride,” DeRome said. “We believe it will find its audience. ‘Melrose Place’ and ‘Beverly Hills 90210,’ other (Starr) programs produced for Fox, took a while to gain steam and then took off.” While ATG’s “Cursed” has done very well, the company’s “Madigan Men” on ABC has struggled and “Grosse Pointe,” a WB vehicle, has wallowed at the bottom of the ratings. Titanic director James Cameron’s foray into network television, Fox’s “Dark Angel,” has struggled, the sci-fi program finishing out of the top 50 in the ratings. “Like it has been for the last two or three years, it’s very difficult for new shows to break into the landscape,” said Tim Spengler, director of national broadcasting for ad-buyer Initiative Media. “With everything starting later, you can start making guesses now about what will be successful, whereas in the past you might have started making those guesses a month ago.”

Waning importance

Some industry analysts said that, while the sweeps periods continue to play a key role in setting local advertising rates, their overall importance has diminished as networks place more emphasis on building their year-round schedules. “Sweeps are kind of an anachronism in a way because advertisers are buying on full-year performance,” Davis said. “The national advertisers are continuing to look mainly at programs that are well done. They want to stay away from controversy and foster an association with a quality product.” “A lot of networks have given up trying to inflate a November number and are sticking to their regular programming,” Spengler agreed. “They want to use their regular series to build long-term equity.” Vogel said that the unusual 2000 season will advance that trend. “It’s been difficult for anyone to develop programming continuity,” Vogel said. “The networks can’t rely on a series to be guided by the sweeps period results, which lessens the importance of sweeps.” Still, don’t expect the fierce competition for November ratings to end anytime soon. With the delayed season and distractions caused by the presidential election and other races, the latter half of the sweeps period promises to be one of the most competitive periods of the year. “This is as atypical a television season as I can remember,” Fox’s DeRome said. “In a normal TV season by this time you begin to settle into patterns where you can see what’s working. This year, that hasn’t happened. The season hasn’t had time to gel yet.