Two-Man Race, But Which Two?

Republican Battle for Gubernatorial Nomination Tightens as Vote Nears

By HOWARD FINE

Staff Reporter

With the primary election just one week away, the race between former L.A. Mayor Richard Riordan, Secretary of State Bill Jones and L.A. investment banker Bill Simon for the Republican gubernatorial nomination has become much tighter than many expected.

Just two months ago, Riordan seemed poised to walk away with the nomination. He had tremendous name recognition, was raising lots of money and had been appealing to the huge portion of voters in the middle of the political spectrum. He felt he could afford to ignore his Republican challengers and run what amounted to a general election campaign against Democratic incumbent Gray Davis.

But Riordan’s once huge lead seems to be withering under a barrage of negative ads from both his Republican opponents and Davis. Political consultants who have viewed internal tracking polls of both the Republican candidates and Democrats tracking the race say there has been a dramatic narrowing of the gap between Riordan and his challengers, especially Bill Simon.

“It’s almost a toss-up right now,” said Dick Rosengarten, a political consultant who publishes the political newsletter CalPeek.

In the closing days of the campaign, Riordan’s strategy of focusing exclusively on Gray Davis has been called into question and finally last week he aired an attack ad against Simon.

“The Riordan campaign has followed a perfectly flawed strategy of pretending the Republican primary doesn’t exist,” said Republican pollster Arnold Steinberg, who is not affiliated with any of the Republican candidates. “It’s a case of irrational exuberance that failed to consider a truism of politics: secure a political base before you move on. Instead, Riordan’s campaign has become a textbook case of alienation.”

Also hurting Riordan was what many regarded as a poor showing at the state Republican Party convention earlier this month in San Jose. Not only didn’t he win the straw poll, an outcome many expected, but he then criticized former Gov. George Deukmejian after the Republican elder statesman said he wouldn’t vote for him. Deukmejian is general co-chair of the Jones campaign.

“You don’t speak ill of a former governor who’s popular with the Republican base,” Rosengarten said.

Both Rosengarten and Steinberg said Riordan is still likely to win, but with a weak plurality vote. However, it’s conceivable, if the turnout is low enough and dominated by conservative voters, that he could lose the primary, Steinberg said.

Winning with a weak plurality would place Riordan in a vulnerable position against Davis. That’s because the Davis team, with its $45 million war chest, will have eight months to pound Riordan on the airwaves, a strategy that so far has placed the former mayor on the defensive.

“Davis has already defined Riordan before Riordan has had a chance to define himself,” Steinberg said.

Whatever the ultimate outcome in November, it promises to be the most expensive gubernatorial campaign in U.S. history, with well over $100 million total spent on both sides.

Last week, just as the race was getting to a feverish pitch, the Business Journal interviewed all three candidates getting their take on business issues affecting the state and local economies. Portions of the conversations appear on page 13.

The big bucks being poured into the governor’s race have overshadowed other important races and issues on the March 5 primary ballot. There are several hotly contested races for other statewide offices, including a three-way Democratic race for Insurance Commissioner.

And while there are fewer ballot initiatives than in most recent elections, three of the six that did make the ballot promise to be controversial, most especially Proposition 45, which would extend term limits by four years.

Off and Running

Here is a rundown of some of the key contested races on the March 5 primary ballot.

State Insurance Commissioner

Democrats: Former Insurance Commissioner and state legislator John Garamendi, Montebello state Assemblyman and Assembly Insurance Committee chair Tom Calderon, former Orange County state Assemblyman Tom Umberg.

Issues/Comments: Calderon is taking hits for his fundraising from the insurance industry, while Garamendi has come under attack for his role in the Executive Life scandal. Garamendi’s name recognition gives him a slight edge.

Secretary of State

Democrats: Former Secretary of State March Fong Eu, Assembly Majority Leader Kevin Shelley, Democratic activist Michela Alioto, granddaughter of former San Francisco Mayor Joe Alioto.

Issues/Comments: March Fong Eu held the post for 20 years and has wide name recognition, but some say her age, 79, may work against her. Shelley has the Democratic Party endorsement.

State Controller

Republicans: State Sen. Tom McClintock, Board of Equalization member Dean Andal.

Issues/Comments: McClintock has some name recognition, but Andal has more money and has sent out mailers and mounted a billboard campaign.

39th Congressional District

Democrats: Three leading candidates: South Gate Councilman Hector De La Torre, state Assemblywoman Sally Havice, D-Cerritos, and union official and attorney Linda Sanchez.

Issues/Comments: Race drawing national attention as Sanchez attempts to follow her sister, Orange County Rep. Loretta Sanchez into Congress. De La Torre has support of bulk of Latino lawmakers.

40th State Assembly District

Democrats: Former Assembly aides Lloyd Levine and Andrei Cherny, who was also a former White House speechwriter.

Issues/Comments: A tight race to see who succeeds the termed out former Assembly Speaker Robert Hertzberg in this San Fernando Valley seat.

52nd STATE Assembly District

Democrats: Former Lt. Gov. Mervyn Dymally, Paramount Mayor Diane Janet Martinzea and communications union vice president Alexandra Gallardo-Rooker.

Issues/Comments: Dymally attempts his political comeback; he’s the frontrunner in the race to replace Assemblyman Carl Washington. But he may have a tough time as an African-American in this increasingly Latino district.

2nd Los Angeles City Council District

Runoff: Assembly Budget Committee chairman Tony Cardenas and DreamWorks SKG executive Wendy Greuel.

Issues/Comments: In this hotly contested race to replace longtime City Councilman Joel Wachs, Cardenas came close to winning outright in December. But spoiler James Cordaro, a Republican businessman who got 10 percent of the vote, is backing Greuel.

State Propositions

Proposition 42: Takes gas sales tax dollars that now largely go into state’s general fund and directs them exclusively for transportation projects. Backing from broad range of business and labor groups and legislative leaders. But opposed by teachers unions, health care activists and other Sacramento interest groups.

Proposition 45: Extends term limits for state legislators by four years, but only if legislator submits petitions from 20 percent of those who voted in the last legislative election. Most controversial measure on ballot. Backed by legislators and also by business groups seeking greater stability in the Legislature. But opponents claim it is a back-door way to gut the term limits law.

School Bonds

March 5 is the first major statewide test of the recently approved state proposition lowering the approval threshold for school bonds from 67 percent to 55 percent. Dozens of school bonds are on local ballots.