Internet Postage Firm’s Shares Enveloped by Doubt

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An analyst’s report downgraded Stamp.com Inc.’s rating last week, giving the strongly performing stock a rare price licking.

Kevin Liu at West L.A.’s B. Riley & Co. issued a release late July 15 moving his rating from “buy” to “neutral” after the stock of the El Segundo company surged past his target price of $39.25. The report came after the stock closed near a 52-week high of $42.74. By the end of trading the next day, Stamps.com had slumped 11 percent and closed the day at $38.01.

Liu said his move wasn’t based on worries about the company’s financials, which he still considers strong. Instead, his concern was that the stock has been performing so well recently – its price has been up 66 percent since it issued strong first quarter results in April – that its valuation had landed in the right place and that it was safer for investors to hold rather than continue to buy.

“They’ve done well, but did things really change much that they needed to be valued significantly more than a quarter ago?” said Liu, noting that he did raise the target price to $43.50. “Right now, the growth hasn’t really changed all that much and the stock reflected all the positives.”

On July 17, the stock rallied a bit and closed at $38.67, down nearly 8 percent for the week, making it one of the biggest losers on the LABJ Stock Index. (See page 26.)

Stamps.com runs an online service that provides stamps and other mailing products to individuals and businesses. The stamps, which can be printed locally, are sold at face value; the company makes money by charging a recurring subscription fee to access the service as well as add-on products such as insurance.

In its last quarterly report, Stamps.com beat analysts’ estimates by 31 percent, announcing revenue of $32.1 million and earnings of 57 cents a share. The uptick came on the tails of increased growth in subscribers both on the consumer and business ends. Stamps.com has increasingly been targeting small to medium businesses, which ship in higher volumes and are more likely to purchase add-on services.

The company announced at the time of the report that its paid subscribers had reached an all-time high, fed in part by a record intake of new customers. After the plush quarterly report, the company raised its yearly revenue guidance from $130 million to $135 million.

Its growth has come during a period of turmoil for the Postal Service as the government has been slashing budgets at the agency. That, plus strong returns from the core business, has analyst Liu sanguine about the company – but only to a point.

“Their numbers have been solid and they’ve beaten expectations,” he said. “As long as those are well controlled, there’s not any reason it can’t do well.”

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